Original OPTA
Michael Carrick's primary goal is to bring Manchester United back to the Champions League again. He has done this, so does he deserve this official contract now?
When United hired Michael Carrick as manager until the end of the season in January, he essentially had one goal in mind, partly because they had only one trophy left to fight for: qualifying for the Champions League.
Sunday's 3-2 win against arch-rivals Liverpool ensured the task was completed three games ahead of schedule, and in fact, even a draw at Old Trafford would have been enough.
However, within Manchester United, no one has ever disclosed that, assuming Carrick leads the team back to the Champions League, the job will still belong to him next season; in the first few weeks, all the rumors circulated that the former midfielder would only be in charge until May, and perhaps nothing more.
However, Carrick's performance was so outstanding that he is undoubtedly qualified to compete for the position of Manchester United's official coach in the upcoming season.
However, the situation is not so absolute. Here, we analyze the reasons for and against his official appointment as head coach.
The case against Michael Carrick remaining in office
It can be said that there is no doubt that Carrick performed very well and successfully completed the tasks assigned to him. However, did he really do that well and be qualified enough to lead Manchester United as an official coach.
If Manchester United ends up finishing third, there's only so much Carrick can do this season. However, his coaching experience is still only a few years in the British Championship and half a season at Manchester United.
Putting aside Carrick's obviously deep connection with Manchester United, let's assume that there is a team that also aspires to qualify for the Champions League. In just four months, Carrick has achieved exactly the same results with this team as he did with Manchester United. So, is he qualified to become the official coach of Old Trafford? The answer is, almost certainly not.
In the eyes of some, Carrick's appointment next season will be seen as a lack of ambition at the club. Again, he's doing a great job, but United's new owners and management have often talked about returning the club to its former glory, so shouldn't they be looking for the best possible coach?
If United's decision-makers are serious about their ambitions, and if they are looking for the best possible manager, then they should be looking to someone like Paris Saint-Germain's Antonio Luis Enrique.
We're not saying Luis Enrique is a realistic candidate, nor are we saying he's unrealistic, but if United are still interested in hiring "the best in class" (as Sir Jim Ratcliffe said when he formed his management team in February 2024), then the former Barcelona boss fits that criteria, and as such, he should be a target.
Likewise, recruiting Carrick would not cause any particular concern to Manchester United's rivals. It is not yet clear how important this is, but it does not make the top brass of Manchester City and Arsenal feel chills down their backs. Taking Luis Enrique as an example will probably make them feel the pressure.
The key point we are trying to make is not that Luis Enrique is uniquely worthy of being pursued; he is simply one of the most striking examples of other managers with notable reputations who may be viewed as equally difficult to deal with by rivals.
In addition, we also need to make it clear that Manchester United's performance under Carrick was not without flaws. The chart presented below shows that their expected goals (xG) data has deteriorated in the recent period, and their second-half performance against Liverpool was also more worrying. When facing a 2-0 lead, they completely lost control of the game. The lack of discipline in the midfield is one of the reasons for this situation.
The ghosts of the past may still be lingering in the back of United's minds.
Manchester United's choice to coach Carrick next season is entirely the play of former executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward, the much-criticized executive who left in 2022 after seeing United sink into relative mediocrity compared to past glory.
It was Woodward who took the lead in hiring Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as caretaker coach, and then handed him the official head coaching position. Although the Norwegian's performance was acceptable in some aspects, there were always doubts that even a better manager and tactician, with the same support as Solskjaer, could have taken United to another level during that period.
There are often people who feel that Solskjaer's decisions are based more on emotion than reason; if Carrick's coaching time extends beyond this season, similar discussions will also follow.
The case for Michael Carrick staying in office
This is not only due to the fact that Carrick achieved the goal he set by ensuring Champions League qualification, but also because the team he led showed extremely strong and extraordinary dominance during the game.
When he took over in January, United were seventh in the Premier League. While there is definitely hope of competing for a Champions League spot, they are 11 points behind third-placed Aston Villa and second-placed Manchester City.
After almost four months of waiting, Manchester United is in third place, six points ahead of Villa, and has qualified for the Champions League three rounds ahead of schedule. They have defeated every other member of the so-called "Big Six" and every team currently ranked in the top five.
Realistically, Carrick couldn't have done better.
Since he took up the role, Manchester United have scored more points than any other team in the Premier League in terms of points, 32 points. Indeed, two games of Manchester City were not played due to some reasons. If they win these two make-up games, then their points will be one point more than that of their rival team in the same city. But no matter which way you look at it, Carrick's impact is profound and unforgettable.
During the same period, Arsenal, the leader, had 5 points less than Manchester United. It was the performance shown during this period that enabled the Red Devils to evolve from a team just competing for European spots to becoming the first team (excluding the top two contenders) to qualify for the Champions League.
The most intuitive reflection of the improvement brought by Carrick is the rolling points per game chart below.
It should also be remembered that Nakarik was largely in the same position as his predecessor Ruben Amorim
A certain group of players were left behind by Amorim. However, unlike the Portuguese coach who rigidly adhered to certain principles, his successor understood flexibility and basically allowed players to return to the positions they were best at.
Abandoning the three-back system used by Amorim has allowed Bruno Fernandez to return to the No. 10 position where he can run freely. In this case, he may even be named the Premier League Player of the Season.
The change in Fernandez's role means Kobbie Mainoo is once again an important figure, having made countless impressive performances and earning a new contract. Looking back now (if I hadn't realized it before), it's shocking how underutilized and even questionable he was under Amorim.
These two examples support several points. Carrick and his coaching staff have a deep understanding of the players, and the players all support Carrick.
In fact, after Sunday's victory over Liverpool, Menu declared that he "would like to follow him and be able to fight for him and be on the pitch".
Carrick
It shows a full fighting spirit, and the signal formed by this spirit can be regarded as an extremely clear signal of support for the players, and even if the channel for generating this signal is just from a player's mouth.
Viewed from this perspective, retaining Carrick seems to be a lower-risk decision. He knows the players, is familiar with the environment, and is extremely unlikely to cause any discord in the locker room or at the board level. After the Amorim period, this situation may be more attractive to policymakers.
Connected to this is that it is unimaginable that Carrick could act to "blackmail" the club. After a series of large-scale internal layoffs, Manchester United is now paying more and more attention to cost control. They are fully capable of providing Carrick with a two-year contract. If the situation next season does not progress as expected, the club also has room to withdraw. Would Luis Enrique – or any other high-profile coach – accept a two-year deal? Not likely.
This year is the year of the World Cup, which greatly increases the possibility of Carrick retaining his position after the 2025-2026 season. Manchester United has already established some good momentum in 2026, and they are not inclined to destroy this momentum by waiting until the World Cup is over before appointing a new coach.
Adhering to this logic, you might think that if Manchester United looks externally, they will most likely either hire a coach who is currently holding a position at another club, or hire a coach who is already determined to leave before the end of June.
A coach named Andoni Iraola will come to mind. However, after experiencing many failures with Amorim, Manchester United may resist hiring a young coach who is touted as "the next big thing", even if Iraola's personality and coaching style are significantly different from Amorim.
At this point in time, Carrick must at least be considered a serious contender for the job. If he doesn't get the job, it probably means the club didn't consider him a realistic long-term candidate from the beginning, after all he's done the best he can.